Well the week did end up in the green, which
is more or less a surprise after a bloody red Saturday. On Saturday
everything was against me, or at least it did feel like that. Lot's of
bets were already destroyed after an early red card, or by red cards
handed out just after placing my live bet. This did result into a loss
of over 5 units.
Still a profit of 1,36 units and getting closer to
the green line for 2021. Still 1.52 units in the red. So hopefully that
will turn green after next week.
Leagues!
Second red week in a row for the Jupiler Pro
League, which does worry me a little bit. But lots of bets were part of
the red Saturday. Also the hit rate on the Premier League jumps out. The
Serie A did save the week.
The give myself a better insight in the
risks I am taking I did add an average odds per competition. Never
underestimate the power of the odds, but more on that later.
Betting types
The 1X2 and AH (Asian Handicap) bets still
keep on funding my bankroll. And both with decent odds. The average odds
for the 1X2 was 2,16, while the average odds for the AH was with 2,26
even higher.
The 1X2 bets are going into the good direction because
when I do look at 2021 in general I am still 2.86 units in the red with a
hit rate of 50%. This does show the importance of odds over 2.
Trying to master myself in corner betting, which is a market which is mostly overlooked, but still a lot of progress have to be made here! With a good enough hit rate of 60%, but way to low odds with 1,73 on average.
Odds!
Odds, odds, odds it is all about the odds. A hit rate of 90% can still turn you into a losing punter if the odds aren't high enough. So that is way I did add odds tracking into my results sheet.
Last week, 34 placed were played. 2 were pushes, so I don't have those two in the numbers below.
First I decided that I was interested in 4 odds ranges. Odds from 1 up to 1.5, odds between 1.5 and 1.75, the most important range 1.75 up to 2.25 and the highest range going from 2.25 to 99.
Ideally you only want to play the odds from the 2 highest ranges. The odds below 1.5 you don't want to play, because you hit rate there should be 100%. And the red cards in the past week did remind me why I try to avoid them.
So let's have a look at the stats!
I am in the green for the year in the two highest odds ranges which is how it should be. Last week I did get some blows in the highest odds range, but it is still in the green with a very decent ROI of just below 14%. The Roi in de 1.75 to 2.25 is 8%!
I never knew that I was so red in the range from 1.5 to 1.75. So it is good that I did create this overview for myself. This year 21 bets were placed in this odd range and only 9 were won, which is a perfect scenario to go bankrupt. This week was the first week this year that I made a profit in this range, which sounds like an improvement but actually isn't. A hit rate of 60% was reached, which normally isn't enough to be in the green, meaning that the combined ante for the winning bets was higher than the combined ante for the losing bets. I will have to have some more numbers about this to make any conclusions, but for the moment I am aware that I will have to be very careful with these bets!
So that's enough for now! Made a profit, found some leaks, a great week overall!
There will be a lot less bets in week 5, because there is no midweek football in the Jupiler Pro League!
Cheers,
Peter
